Key Facts
- National average (regular)
- $4.09 per gallon, down 1 cent
- Oregon average (regular)
- $4.65 per gallon, up nearly 1 cent
- Crude oil range (week)
- $77 to $85 per barrel
- Most expensive state
- California at $5.65
- Cheapest state
- Indiana at $3.59
- National diesel average
- $5.37 per gallon, up 5 cents
Background
Pump prices in the U.S. have remained relatively stable this week, with most states seeing changes of six cents or less, according to AAA. The national average for regular gasoline slipped one cent to $4.09 per gallon, while Oregon's average ticked up nearly a cent to $4.65.
This steadiness comes despite significant volatility in crude oil prices, which ranged from about $77 to $85 per barrel over the past week. Markets reacted to developments in the Middle East, including renewed fighting and statements from President Trump about potential strikes against Iran, followed by assurances of no attack and upcoming peace talks.
Gas prices are significantly higher than before the conflict with Iran began. On Feb. 28, the day the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, the national average was $2.98 and Oregon's average was $3.92. Since the conflict started, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices have ranged between $68 and nearly $113 per barrel, compared to $67 on Feb. 27.
Current Situation
Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho, noted that crude oil prices have been very volatile since the conflict began in late February. She said that while August is normally a quiet time for pump prices, relatively high crude oil prices are keeping them elevated, and drivers could see the highest pump prices ever for August.
This week, California ($5.65) has the most expensive gas in the nation for the third week in a row, followed by Hawaii ($5.46) and Washington ($5.13). Indiana ($3.59) and Texas ($3.60) have the cheapest averages. The difference between the most and least expensive states is $2.06, down from $2.17 a week ago.
All 50 states and the District of Columbia have higher prices than a year ago, with the national average up 94 cents and Oregon up 67 cents. Oregon has the second-smallest year-over-year gain, while Arizona has the largest at $1.23. The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices, with all seven states in the top 10.
| Category | National | Oregon | Washington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start of 2026 | $2.83 | $3.42 | $3.86 |
| Highest 2026 | $4.564 (May 21) | $5.353 (May 20) | $5.789 (May 20) |
| Lowest 2026 | $2.795 (Jan 11) | $3.33 (Jan 20) | $3.79 (Jan 14) |
| Record high | $5.016 (Jun 14, 2022) | $5.548 (Jun 15, 2022) | $5.789 (May 20, 2026) |
Impacts
The conflict with Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for about 20% of the world's oil and refined products. Tanker traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels of 100 to 130 ships per day, and any disruption can send crude oil prices higher, affecting global supplies.
In general, every $1 increase in the price of crude oil leads to a 2.4- to 2.5-cent increase in the price of gasoline. Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, accounting for about 52% of the cost of a gallon of gasoline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Diesel prices are also higher in 47 states and the District of Columbia this week. The national average rose five cents to $5.37 per gallon, while Oregon's average added four cents to $5.52. A year ago, the national diesel average was $3.73 and Oregon's was $4.50.
Future Outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
Crude oil prices remain volatile, with dramatic swings driven by concerns about the conflict with Iran and its impact on global oil supplies. If the conflict escalates or peace talks fail, crude prices could rise further, potentially pushing pump prices to record highs for August.
Conversely, if peace talks progress and tensions ease, crude prices may decline, leading to lower gas prices. However, seasonal factors, such as the switch to winter-blend fuel starting in September, could also influence prices. Many areas, including Oregon, can sell winter-blend fuel starting September 15, which typically costs less to produce.
The U.S. remains a top crude oil producer, with production at 13.80 million barrels per day for the week ending July 24. If production remains high and geopolitical tensions subside, gas prices could stabilize or decrease in the coming months. However, any new disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or other geopolitical events could reverse this trend.
Source: iheart.com
