Key facts
- Territories
- Ceuta and Melilla, Spanish autonomous cities in North Africa
- Spanish rule since
- Ceuta: 1668; Melilla: 1497
- Morocco's claim
- Consistent since 1956 independence
- Recent migrant surge
- Tens of thousands entered last week
- U.S. congressional report
- Noted cities in Moroccan territory, backed diplomatic engagement
- NATO stance
- Ready to defend all allies, but no speculation on scenarios
Background
Ceuta and Melilla, two Spanish autonomous cities on the northern coast of Africa, have been under Madrid's rule since 1668 and 1497, respectively. They are fully integrated parts of Spain and the European Union, but Morocco has consistently claimed sovereignty over both since gaining independence from France in 1956, characterizing them as 'colonies' that are 'occupied' by Spain.
Morocco's claims have been bolstered by a warming relationship with the United States, particularly since 2020, when then-President Donald Trump recognized Rabat's claim to Western Sahara in exchange for normalization of relations between Morocco and Israel. Last week, Trump reaffirmed that recognition in a statement issued by the U.S. Embassy in Rabat at the same moment as migrants surged into Ceuta.
Current situation
A surge of migrants into Ceuta and Melilla last week has put Madrid on the defensive. Defense Minister Margarita Robles said during a press conference on Monday: 'Ceuta and Melilla are not to be touched. Everyone must be very clear that Spanish territorial integrity and sovereignty are not up for debate.'
Questions over Spain's control of the cities have been raised not only by Morocco but also in a U.S. Congress report and by Israel's ambassador to the U.N. U.S. Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart, in an April interview with Spanish newspaper El Español, stated 'Ceuta and Melilla are in Moroccan territory' and questioned whether the cities 'are part of Spain or should be part of Morocco.' He later submitted a congressional report noting the cities 'are located in Moroccan territory and remain the subject of Morocco's longstanding claim.'
Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Danny Danon wrote on X: 'Maybe before it continues lecturing us, it's time it explained to the world why it still maintains colonial enclaves in Africa.' Israel's head of mission in Madrid, Dana Erlich, later clarified that Danon's comments did not represent an official position.
| Year | Event |
|---|---|
| 1497 | Melilla comes under Spanish rule |
| 1668 | Ceuta comes under Spanish rule |
| 1956 | Morocco gains independence, claims both cities |
| 1975 | Green March leads to Spanish Sahara handover |
| 2002 | Moroccan marines occupy Perejil Island |
| 2021 | 8,000 people surge into Ceuta |
| 2026 | Migrant surge into Ceuta and Melilla |
Impacts
The crisis has heightened Spanish fears of a 'Green March 2.0,' recalling Morocco's 1975 mass mobilization that forced the handover of Spanish Sahara. Historian José Luis Rodríguez Jiménez noted that in 2002, Moroccan marines briefly occupied Perejil Island, and in 2021 some 8,000 people surged into Ceuta after Morocco withdrew its gendarmes from the border.
Former Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo said the government's weakness has contributed to the crisis, and that NATO's commitment to defending Ceuta and Melilla is only as strong as 'our allies' willingness to support us.' An official said NATO was 'ready and well-postured to protect and defend all allies,' but declined to speculate on hypothetical scenarios.
Spanish officials reject claims of weakness. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska on Tuesday insisted the crisis showed the country to be a 'strong' and respected regional player. A foreign ministry spokesperson said: 'The Spanishness of Ceuta and Melilla is beyond all doubt and is recognized as such by international law and the entire world.'
Future outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
If Morocco continues to press its claims, Spain may face increased diplomatic pressure, especially if U.S. lawmakers or other international figures keep raising the issue. The situation could escalate if Rabat decides to test Madrid's resolve again, as it did in 2002 and 2021.
However, if Spain successfully projects strength and maintains NATO support, the status quo may hold. The Spanish government's ability to manage its minority coalition and corruption scandals could influence its perceived weakness, potentially affecting Morocco's calculations.
The future remains uncertain, with scenarios ranging from continued diplomatic friction to a more serious confrontation. Much depends on the actions of Morocco, the United States, and NATO allies.
Source: politico.eu
