Key facts
- Missiles in attack
- 27 ballistic missiles
- Intercepted
- 1 missile
- U.S. Patriot stockpile before Iran war
- More than 2,300
- U.S. Patriot stockpile now
- Around 800
- THAAD stockpile before Iran war
- Around 450
- THAAD stockpile now
- About 250
Background
The U.S.-made Patriot air defense system, introduced in the 1980s, first saw major use in the 1991 Gulf War against Iraqi Scud missiles. Today, nearly 20 U.S.-allied countries in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East rely on it to defend against ballistic missiles.
Patriot interceptors are produced by RTX (formerly Raytheon) and Lockheed Martin, each missile costing around $4 million. Combined production has been fewer than 1,000 per year, which was sufficient until demand surged with the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran wars.
Ukraine began receiving Patriot batteries three years ago and has used them effectively to limit damage from Russian attacks. Kyiv views the system as critical and has repeatedly requested more systems and missiles.
Current situation
On Saturday, Russia launched a massive air assault on Ukraine, including 27 ballistic missiles, many targeting Kyiv. The attack killed nine people and wounded more than 30. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the military intercepted only one missile, citing a lack of interceptors for Patriot systems.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reported in July that U.S. Patriot stockpiles had fallen from more than 2,300 before the Iran war began on Feb. 28 to around 800 today. A U.S. official, speaking anonymously, told NPR the figures appeared accurate.
U.S. allies in the Gulf are also concerned about replenishing their Patriot inventories if renewed fighting with Iran occurs. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called shortage reports a 'manufactured story' in June, but two months earlier he acknowledged replenishment could take 'months and years.'
| System | Before Iran war | Today |
|---|---|---|
| Patriot | More than 2,300 | Around 800 |
| THAAD | Around 450 | About 250 |
Impacts
Ukraine faces the most urgent need for fresh Patriot interceptors, as it has been largely helpless in recent Russian onslaughts. Zelenskyy is urging other countries to send their Patriot missiles, saying they should not be stockpiled for 'hypothetical scenarios' but used 'here and now.'
So far, no country has publicly pledged to send more missiles to Ukraine. The U.S. has also used many THAAD interceptors in the Iran war; CSIS reported THAAD stockpiles dropped from about 450 before the war to about 250 today.
The shortage affects not only Ukraine but also U.S. allies in the Gulf and other nations that depend on Patriots. Production rates are outpaced by Russian and Iranian ballistic missile firing rates, and it remains unclear how long it will take to replace or increase worldwide inventories.
Future outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
If the U.S. grants Ukraine a license to build its own Patriots, it could take several years before missiles come off the production line due to a stretched supply chain for components. Germany and Japan are currently the only countries licensed to make Patriots.
At last month's NATO summit in Turkey, Trump told Zelenskyy he'd give Ukraine the license, but last Friday he backpedaled, saying 'we have not agreed to that' and that it's 'a hard thing to give away that kind of technology.' Rep. Don Bacon still supports the idea, saying it would help relieve the interceptor shortage.
If production is not ramped up quickly, Ukraine and other allies may continue to face vulnerabilities. However, if the U.S. and its partners accelerate production or transfer existing missiles, the shortage could ease. The exact timeline remains uncertain.
Source: wutc.org
