Key Facts
- Expected impact date
- Wednesday, Aug. 5
- Impact location
- Near Einstein and Bell craters
- Crater size expected
- About 60 feet wide and 12 feet deep
- Launch date
- Jan. 15, 2025
- Mission
- Deployed Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost 1 lunar lander under NASA's CLPS initiative
- Tracking confirmation
- NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies confirmed 100% chance of impact
Background
On Jan. 15, 2025, SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket that deployed Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost 1 lunar lander to the Moon under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative. The upper stage, after completing its primary mission, was expected to follow a disposal trajectory, but solar activity and gravitational forces caused an unplanned return to the Moon.
Independent astronomers first identified the stage's trajectory using publicly available data. NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California later confirmed that the stage has a 100% chance of impacting the Moon. NASA and SpaceX remain in communication about the upper stage and its flight path.
Current Situation
The Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to impact the Moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, near the Einstein and Bell craters. The impact poses no danger to Earth. NASA will continue tracking the stage as part of training operations for tracking objects in space.
The impact will not be visible to the naked eye on Earth, but NASA will attempt to observe it in real time. The Meteoroid Environments Office at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville will use ground-based telescopes to image the impact, though weather and lighting conditions may make viewing difficult.
NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the ShadowCam instrument aboard South Korea's Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter will look for chances to image the site before and after the impact. Image availability will depend on lighting, orbital timing, and spacecraft position, and it may take several days to receive imagery.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected impact date | Wednesday, Aug. 5 |
| Impact location | Near Einstein and Bell craters |
| Expected crater width | About 60 feet |
| Expected crater depth | About 12 feet |
| Frequency of similar meteoroid impacts | About every six days |
| Launch date | Jan. 15, 2025 |
Impacts
The rocket stage is expected to create a crater about 60 feet wide and 12 feet deep and throw dust and rock outward as ejecta. For comparison, a meteoroid with the same energy as the upper stage hits the Moon about every six days, so the lunar surface is constantly absorbing impacts with the same force.
Observing the impact gives scientists valuable insight by revealing how ejecta plumes behave, helping to understand the Moon's geology and refine models that guide future exploration and science missions. Any data collected will help scientists better understand artificial impacts and their exploration implications.
Although unplanned in this instance, disposing of upper stages on the lunar surface is a technically accepted and safe method and, in some cases, can be the only practical option for missions in low lunar orbit. Many operators choose controlled impacts because they provide predictable and trackable end-of-life outcomes.
Future Outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
If NASA successfully observes the impact, the data could improve models of ejecta behavior and lunar geology, benefiting future exploration missions. However, if weather or lighting conditions hinder ground-based observations, the agency may rely on orbital assets, which could delay imagery by several days.
The event may also refine techniques for tracking objects in space, as NASA continues to monitor the stage's trajectory. If the impact occurs as predicted, it could demonstrate the value of coordinated tracking and observation of artificial objects on the lunar surface.
Looking ahead, NASA's commitment to debris mitigation and responsible disposal practices may be reinforced by this event, potentially influencing how future missions plan upper-stage disposal. The outcome could also inform international guidelines for lunar operations, though such developments remain uncertain.
Source: NASA
